On the Gautrain

I finally took the Gautrain last Wednesday. The train is smooth and great to be in but I still think it was a kind of a waste to spend so much money on this project while even our own Metrobus in Jo'burg can't cater for its citiznes. Enough of my complaints.......I was on my way to the Airport (O.R. Tambo) and as a rule I had to get inside the Airport bound coach. Next to me was this wonderful black girl but who was going to Rhodesfield (Yes you heard me...she was going to Rhodesfield). When the train got there the door could not open and she was told that she has to go back to Sandton to take the right coach.

I asked the Security who was next to me if she cant get into the right coach at the Airport and he explained to me that No! I dont know why is thats the case, but I really think whoever who came with this idea is stupid or does this show that their fare (to Malboro/Rhodesfield) are under priced? Oh, talking of price, Gautrain prices from Hatfield to Jo'burg were unvailed on the 06th this month.

Later!

Gautrain giving free rides on Car Free Day

Gautrain is offering free rides on the 20th October 2010. This is part of their contribution to SA's Car Free Day where they will be encouraging car owners to leave their cars at home (and probably a marketing strategy for their half empty buses). This offers does not include a ride on their trains. Sorry.

Gautrain marks 1 million passengers - a success or failure?

Last Wednesday, 22 September 2010 Gautrain reached its 1 million passengers mark since its inception few days before the FIFA World Cup. According to Gautrain, the milestone coincided almost exactly with 100 days of operation. It is not known if the 1 million is based on the number of passengers who made use of the train or the number of tickets bought. If it is the latter, then it should be a concern because we all know that not everyone who buys a ticket to the movies do not necessarily watch the movie.

Now, lets check how many people were transported (average) in each day the trains operated;

1 million/100 days = 10 000 average passengers per day. As expected, most of the passengers were carried during the World Cup when 400 000 passengers were carried between OR Tambo and Sandton in its first month. This translates to 13 000 average passengers carried per day in the first month.

With international trains carrying more passengers than what Gautrain is carrying currently, can this be considered to be a failure? Considering that it was estimated that 104 000 passengers per day will be carried and the link between Hatfield to Malboro and from Braamfontein to Sandton City is not yet operational, then one should not be quick to think that. Assuming that the average 10 000 passengers carried currently remains, the questions to be raised is whether the remaining lines will carry the remaining 94 000 passengers.

For now, I can not tell and we will have to wait until the line is built. But a quick guess tells me that the 94 000 passengers will be hard to be achieved. Here are the reasons why I think so;

• First, most South Africans just love being in their cars, so convincing them to get out of them to shared seats will be a mountain to climb even when roads are going to be tolled;
• I am not sure how many people get sponsored by the companies via car subsidies, but those who are will not leave their cars as new toll roads will be easily be absorbed;
• For those who will be burdened by toll roads will find alternative routes to avoid the toll roads - which lead to more damaged local roads (what are the local authority planning to do about this is not known) - see map below;

View New Roads to be Tolled and Alternative Routes in a larger map

But like I said before, one should wait for April 2011 (note: Gautrain's website list the operational date as 06/2011), when the second phase of the Gautrain is completed.

Gautrain should sort its problems fast........

It has only being operating for two months but already its workers have striked twice. First it was the bus drivers employed by Mega express, a company contracted to ferry Gautrain passengers who took in an illegal strike a month back and now the customer services personnel have joined them (though reports states that its not all stations affected). Why is this the case? Is it because the parties behind the project were so focused on ensuring that the project is completed before the World Cup and left everything to do with employees was left to take care of itself?

With South Africans having given up on the government to stop public public disruption when there are strikes in SA, this may not go well with future Gautrain passengers users. It is for this reason I call the Bombela Concession Company to negotiate with their workers to reach a lasting agreement if we are to see a successful Gautrain. After all, it is in everyone's interest.

A blame game while Customers get stranded - PRASA and Transnet.

If you have a family member who relies on Shosholoza Meyl long distance trains, you will be saddened to hear that the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) has cancelled Shosholoza's services for at least two weeks in order to evaluate its passenger rail corridors to determine which of its routes are viable. The company says that revenues have fallen far short of operating costs, and passenger trains are bedevilled by unreliable locomotives (The Times Live, 14 August 2010).

But the reasons given below where not be the real reason behind the suspension of the services which thousands of people rely on. The real reasons, according to Unions United Transport and Allied Trade Unions (Utatu) was because of a disagreement about train maintenance with Transnet (The Times Live, 14 August 2010). Transnet owns the tracks in which PRASA operates its trains and also maintains PRASA's trains. Ironically, PRASA bought Shosholoza Meyl for R100 from Transnet. PRASA, on its media statement confirmed this dispute which you can read here, though Transnet denies that the withdrawals of train services is related to the maintenance contract.

Even though PRASA assured passengers that they will provide buses to ferry passengers who have paid for their tickets or refund them, I find it hard to believe that they will do this efficiently and not all passengers will receive this information on time which will leave them stranded. This is disturbing, considering that billions of Rands have been wasted on Gautrain while other passenger rail services (e.g. Metrorail) are falling into disarray, despite the latter carrying far more people than the former.

Whether the discussions that are taking place today between PRASA and Transnet are going to bare any fruits remains to be seen, but with both companies belonging to the government departments, it is clear that a political solution is going to be reached. Therefore a long term solution is needed and fast tracking the development of a Rail Policy/Act which will ultimately lead to the setting up of a Rail Economic Regulator. One of the toughest questions that the rail policy needs to answer are as follows;

• Whether it is in the economy's best interest for Transnet to own rail tracks while at the same time operating the business of moving freight;
• To whom will the Gautrain belong to once the PPP agreement with Bombela comes to an end;
• Are PPP rail projects in the future the way to go and if so which passenger agency will be responsible for them (PRASA or Provinces?);and
• The future of rail gauge.

Once this is answered, perhaps we can see a lasting solution that is to the beneficial to the economy. South Africa can not afford the situation that is happening between Transnet and PRASA.

Ahhh, Sean Muller could not have said it better when he argues recently on the Business Day that Gautrain discourages social integration between the haves and the haves not. Related post written by me is found here

SEÁN MULLER: Rapid rail links bypass the real issues

THE flirtation with high- speed rail is a symptom of the government’s preference for trying to solve simple but fundamental socioeconomic problems with high-profile, over-hyped projects

THE flirtation with high- speed rail is a symptom of the government’s preference for trying to solve simple but fundamental socioeconomic problems with high-profile, over-hyped projects that bypass — in the Gautrain’s case, geographically as well as metaphorically — the real issues.

When the Gautrain was proposed, the (now inflated) cost was in the vicinity of R8bn-R15bn, with projections of about 100000 passengers a day. Contrast this with the R1bn that was allocated annually to the entire Metrorail system at the time, which is already carrying more than 2-million commuters daily. What is the argument for value per passenger here, never mind the overall socioeconomic impact? Despite efforts to put a glossy sheen on projects such as the Gautrain and the World Cup, their socioeconomic benefits remain questionable.

The primary existing problems with passenger rail include security, reliability, capacity, accessibility and quality (of infrastructure and service). These are serious problems for existing commuters, and are the main barriers to attracting wealthier passengers out of their motor vehicles.

The historical lack of appetite to tackle these problems is obvious: for example, on the security front it took a court ruling to force the government to put barely adequate security back on the trains, although we could employ about 50000 additional security guards for a comparatively small R1,8bn over 10 years to achieve this.

Improving capacity requires investing in new, as well as replacing existing, rolling stock. This must involve expanding local maintenance and manufacturing capacity, which in turn requires long-term commitment to timetables of repair and replacement. Accessibility requires better integration with, and improvement of, feeder systems such as buses and taxis, and may also include increased secure parking for wealthier passengers or the extension and improvement of feeder routes into wealthier areas.

Improving the reliability and quality of the service necessitates a whole host of measures, including investment in personnel training, upgrading aspects of the basic infrastructure (switching, for instance) and improvements at stations.

Notice that the issue of speed is nowhere on this shopping list of improvements. Yes, faster trains would somewhat ease capacity issues and reduce people’s overall time commuting, but these benefits are insignificant relative to the scale of the existing failures. Further , we have not even touched on the failures relating to social integration — these are compounded by Gautrain-style projects.

To its credit, the newly constituted Passenger Rail Agency of SA (Prasa) has shown signs that it understands the nature of the challenges and measures required to fix them. Yet President Jacob Zuma and Transport Minister Sbu Ndebele have said the government is investigating a national high-speed rail network, starting with a commuter link between Durban and Johannesburg. The motivation comes from China’s plan for a high-speed network, but there are a host of differences between our countries that make such analogies embarrassing.

China has a huge population and higher population density, the scale and industrial capacity to develop its own high-speed rail industry, an expanding rail network and an economy that is already moving like a high-speed train. By contrast, SA has a relatively small, dispersed population; in rail and other areas we have almost been de-industrialising; the rail network we have has been rapidly rolled back over recent decades, with many lines now going literally to seed; and the economy is growing sluggishly.

There is no honest and convincing argument for any high-speed rail in this country, nor will there be for at least a few decades.

Nevertheless, it seems that the government wants to spend vast sums of money for costly private-sector competence, import foreign equipment and expertise we will never bother to produce ourselves, and spin the supposed benefits of fundamentally elitist projects, rather than make the effort to get competent government structures and intermediate industries in place that will be capable of tackling the real problems.

- Muller lectures economics at the University of Cape Town.

And here is a comment from one of the reader, Ntja;

The Gautrain is a good attempt at addressing Gauteng’s unique public transport needs. Due to Gauteng’s urban sprawl speed is a consideration in “shrinking” the distances between the Gauteng’s stops and encouraging the upper classes from out of their cars. The Gautrain should also help address some of this sprawl by encouraging densification in areas adjacent to stations. I actually think that the Gautrain represents an opportunity to improve on South Africa’s current social integration landscape where the upper classes keep themselves cocooned in their cars from their remote access garage doors to the boomed off parking at work. Even if one considered the Gautrain’s ridership to be entirely privileged there will be more opportunities for social integration at nodes where the Gautrain interacts with other modes of transport (metrorail, rea vaya), in public places and pavements as all classes complete the last section of their daily commute on foot.

Currently upper middle class South Africa doesn’t use public transport at all. I think it is unfair to suggest that government has totally ignored the latent potential in metrorail to provide a more efficient and effective commuter rail service. Government has been late in acting on this but since the formation of prasa in 2009 R25bn has been allocated to rail improvement projects over 3 years, incidentally a figure similar to the Gautrain’s price tag. Much of the current state of rail in South Africa is due to a legacy of bad planning and management as you rightly point out. I agree with all your points in trying to improve on this situation. There are also the technical limitations of cape guage track, the betamax of rail technology. I will resist a technical diatribe. Almost all of South Africas existing rail network is built on this standard. This standard is slower, has les payload and it is more expensive and difficult to service and acquiring rolling stock for as it only used in 17% of the world’s railways. If you’re going to build a new rail link; it has to be on standard gauge for sustainability considerations ( the Gautrain runs on standard gauge).

It has been estimated that it would cost South Africa R800bn to upgrade the existing rail infrastructure to standard gauge. It is time someone made some really hard decisions as persisting with standard gauge infrastructure is likely to cost even more with each passing year. It is time to set in motion an incremental upgrade of our railway infrastructure. This brings me also to the mooted high speed link between Durban and Johannesburg. This may be inspired by commuter rail links in China but in statements coming out of prasa and government it is quite obvious that no one is naively talking about a country wide high speed commuter rail link with links between Kroonstad and Welkom, for example.

Durban and Johannesburg are two of our countries most populous cities. There is high daily road based traffic between the two cities. In a statement on the pre feasibility study on the link Lucky Montana of prasa stated that the link would only be viable as a combined commuter and freight link. This makes sense especially when considering plans to increase capacity at Durban’s harbour. Speed would also help in improving competitiveness. Government and prasa should, in fact, be commended for showing foresight; an element which has been missing in management of South Africas rail infrastructure. To say that there will be no convincing argument for highspeed rail in this country for several decades grossly simplifies things. It is easy to dismiss the Gautrain project as a a vanity project for the rich when it is viewed in isolation. When you look at the Gautrain as a fast and efficient link between Gauteng’s hubs of economic activity ,a counter to congestion hotspots and the backbone of a broader more integrated public transport solution its easy to see its value and accessibility to all sectors of the public.

As early as next year, for example, a resident of Soweto travelling to Tshwane in the morning will be able to do so by taking the Rea Vaya bus to Braamfontein and connecting to the Gautrain to complete the journey. I already know someone who lives in Thembisa and travels to Sandton by connecting via the Rhodesfield station. Justifying the cost of anything is a common subject in the south African debate. People are never going to agree on the price point for any intervention and several “real issues” are always cited as places where funds could be better spent. The reality is that we are inefficient in spending money in many of these “real” problems and also we shouldn’t neglect other arrears of improving our economic and social landscape. The ability to integrate the Gautrain with other forms of public transport is how the service will ultimately fail or help the broader public.

There are signs that the Gauteng government recognises this. Its too early to pass that judgement. My fear is that, when phase 2 of the Gautrain is complete it will be oversubscribed. People underestimate the sheer horror of the Tshwane/Midrand/ Joburg commute. Already the initial number coming from mbombela for phase one are several times more than the initial estimates.

Gautrain's Ticketing System

Having experienced the same issue with PUTCO buses, I must say I agree with the Gautrain customer whose questions to Gautrain were posted on Moneyweb. The questions were about the remaining trips that get expired after a month if one bought a monthly pass. Also, because customers never do trips on Saturdays and Sundays, they think that they are being ripped off which is the case with PUTCO buses. After reading the Gautrian's representative response, I thought she needed to go back to the drawing board and come back with a better answer. Interestingly enough, even similar questions are being asked in Hellopeter. Below is the question posed by the reader and the response from Gautrain

How Gautrain calculates its fares

Bombela gives answers, after a Community member asks if Gautrain saves you time, money?

Question:
I have some concerns regarding the Gautrain.

Firstly regarding the weekly and monthly passes for the Gautrain...which I believe to be virtually useless. A monthly pass is only valid for one calendar month, and has 70 one way trips...thus 35 return trips to a single station...obviously meant to be for commuting to work. Now, I work from Mondays to Fridays, as most commuters/people do. Thus only, on average, will I need 21 return trips per month (21 week days per calendar month). Why would I want to go to the station my work is closest to on Saturdays and Sundays? Thus 14 return trips are totally useless and a waste of money as they fall over weekends.

Same goes for the weekly pass. Again, you need to use the weekly pass in seven consecutive days. Thus Monday to Sunday. Why on Earth would I want to go to work on Saturdays and Sundays? I mean seriously...who researched these options?

Then also, they say the Gautrain is cheaper than the actual cost of a private car. I saw how they calculate that...petrol + maintenance + insurance...insurance??? Are they assuming because I am using the Gautrain, I no longer need to pay insurance on my car? Do they believe I am going to sell my car because I can take the train to work every weekday? This makes absolutely NO sense.

On Monday, June 14 2010, I also took the bus to Sandton station to test how long it would take. It took me a ten minute walk to reach a bus station, climb up at the corner of Wessels and 12th Ave, and it took 20 minutes to reach the station. Assuming the train takes 30 minutes to get from Sandton station to Centurion (My commute would be from Centurion to Sandton Station), then another 20 minute bus trip to get from Centurion station to the corner of Hendrik Verwoerd and Rooihuiskraal (Where I believe the bus will drop me closest to my home) and then another ten minute walk...this adds up to roughly a total of 1 hour and 30 minutes to get home from work. To drive, from my work, to my home takes at most 1 hour.

Also, a diesel car makes it even cheaper to travel by private car. Thus, the Gautrain is more expensive (by far) than a diesel car + petrol (diesel of course) and the coming toll gates (I refuse to incorporate insurance to this calculation as it makes no sense) AND on top of that...it is 30 minutes slower. The new wide highways makes sure of that fact...it's bliss driving home and to work with the new highway lanes!

Now I ask people with tears in my eyes...WHY would I pay more for a longer trip from Centurion to Rivonia?

Answer: Julia Keevy, technical analyst at Bombela

With regards to the fare structures, they have been designed by the Gauteng provincial government with the concessionaire in accordance with the contract and financial model. There is a fares review committee, which reviews the fare structures and fees on an ongoing basis. If changes are made, they will be released to the media. Thank you for feedback, your sentiments have been forwarded to the relevant parties.

Please note the fares have been designed taking into account international best practice, most transport systems around the world within a weekly (seven day) pass or a calendar month pass. Hence we have attempted to follow these best practice standards.

Should the Gautrain white calabashes be scrapped?

It has been confirmed that Gautrain white calabashes are not so Ayoba as I argued here and here. With 24000 passengers carried in the first month ( 08 June to 08 July I presume) and their website showing us the number of routes covered by these buses and their frequency I throughly calculate the average number of passengers per trip. The average number of passenger carried over a month is 870 passengers per day while the train itself carried an average of 12 903 passengers per day, short of 87 097 which was project, though the link is not yet finalized (indeed, politicians and supporters may argue that the vast number of passengers will move between Pretoria and Johannesburg). Now, I also made some calculations to see how many average passengers were carried during the peak hours if I use the information given (Frequency of trains and buses for both peak and off peak hours...and here is what I calculated and found;

Now, going back to the the question...should Bombela scrap off their service or should one have to wait and see what happens when the other stations in the Johannesburg and the Hatfield are opened? I think they Bombela in partnership with Metro Bus, City of Tshwane and Ekhurhuleni Metropolitan start encouraging their passengers to make use of their respective municipality Metro Buses. If this is not done, Bombela risk its bus service being cross subsidised by its rail service which will lead to price increases.